The Retrospective, Week 7

Week 7 Record
Straight Up: 2-4
Against the Spread: 3-3

I should have quit somewhere around Week 2, when it looked like I had some kind of an idea what I was doing. But since it’s also reflected in the picks contest (where the high school games aren’t exactly helping me, either), I guess it doesn’t really matter. Let’s try and figure out what went wrong:

#22 Virginia Tech (-3) at Boston College
My Prediction: VT - 17, BC - 13
Actual Result: BC - 22, VT - 3

Let’s just say that Georgia Tech is looking a whole lot less impressive. Fortunately, it won’t take long to find out just how good the Jackets are, as they travel to Clemson this Saturday. As for the Hokies, they just aren’t a very good football team this year. For all the praise Branden Ore appears to get from the media, he hasn’t shown me anything this year. Frank Beamer has been forced to abandon the run in his team’s two losses, in which Sean Glennon had a total of more than 80 pass attempts. That’s not Virginia Tech football.

#24 Rutgers (+2) at Navy
MP: USNA - 27, RU - 24
AR: RU - 34, USNA - 0

Though I wasn’t able to see any of this game, I understand that Navy quarterback Brian Hampton’s dislocated knee was the biggest reason for the lopsided score. Paul Johnson used two other quarterbacks, but his offense managed only 113 yards on the ground. The defense held the Scarlet Knights to just 124 yards rushing, but allowed Rutgers’ Mike Teel to show that he can, if needed, throw the football a little bit. Maybe Rutgers isn’t quite as one-dimensional as I first thought.

Mississippi (+14.5) at Alabama
MP: UA - 14, UM - 10
AR: UA - 26, UM - 23

Looking at the statistics, you would think that Alabama completely dominated this game, but thanks to a couple of big plays (and some key Alabama miscues), Ole Miss was able to hang around and force overtime. This was about what I expected, though, save the late-game dramatics.

#4 Michigan (-6.5) at Penn State
MP: UM - 28, PSU - 17
AR: UM - 17, PSU - 10

The Michigan defense once again showed why it’s one of the best in the nation, holding Penn State to BC-Groves 2000-like numbers on the ground. This was a semi-trap game for the Wolverines, at night on the road, with a then-ranked Iowa team next on the ledger. But Adrian Arrington and Steve Breaston filled in nicely for an injured Mario Manningham to push their team’s record to 7-0.

#2 Florida (+1.5) at #11 Auburn
MP: UF - 21, AU - 17
AR: AU - 27, UF - 17

This game shows you just how unlikely it is for an SEC team to run the table in this day and age. Florida gave it a great shot, able to leave it all on the field with a bye week coming up, but couldn’t overcome an emotional crowd and Auburn team on the Plains. The Tigers made those huge plays on defense (fumble in the red zone) and special teams (blocked put for a touchdown) you absolutely have to make to beat a team as great as this Florida team has been.

Vanderbilt (+14.5) at #16 Georgia
MP: UGA - 23, VU - 10
AR: VU - 24, UGA - 22

I don’t know if there’s anything else to say about this game after the multiple hash-out sessions that went on last night, but I’ll give it a shot. Vanderbilt was the better team on Saturday, and they just might be the better team when it’s all said and done this year. Georgia didn’t hand them anything. In fact, the Commodores had to overcome a few crippling mistakes of their own to give themselves a chance to win this game.

And now, for the obligatory mentions of the quarterback/tailback situations. I think it’s clear that it’s time to give the reigns over to Matthew Stafford. If you think you’ve still got a shot to win now, he gives you just as good a chance to move the ball as Tereshinski does. If you want to accept the fact that Florida, Auburn, and Georgia Tech are much better than you are, it doesn’t make any sense to lose with a senior quarterback.

Obviously, it’s terrible what has likely happened to Thomas Brown, but at least it will force the coaching staff’s collective hand as far as the tailback rotation goes. Lumpkin has been your best option this year, and Danny Ware didn’t play in the Tennessee game. Lumpkin should get the vast majority of the carries, if not all of them, from here on out.

As for the defense, I’m not one necessarily to advocate coaching changes, especially at the halfway point in the season. But Willie Martinez, over the last twelve games or so, just seems to be in way over his head. People say he needs to make halftime adjustments, and I’m sure he‘s making them. The problem is, he’s still getting out coached by superior offensive minds. In my (albeit uneducated) view, he has simply been promoted beyond his capabilities.