Beat the Anglin Book: Week 4
Colorado (+24) at #9 Georgia
We all know how dismal the Buffaloes have been on offense up to this point: 10 points against Montana State and Colorado State, 3 points against an always stout Arizona State defense. So it will take no great leap of faith to predict that Dan Hawkins’ team won’t be able to muster much in the way of scoring versus a Bulldogs team giving up exactly 4 points a game.
But one thing people need to look at is, the Buffs have actually been a pretty good defensive team so far. They’ve surrendered point totals of 19, 14, and 21 (against an always very good ASU group…I’m being serious this time) in their three losses. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, scored only 18 points at South Carolina and led UAB just 10-0 at the half. Don’t call them world beaters just yet.
And let’s face it, chances are, Matthew Stafford is going to have a freshman meltdown at some point this season. I’m not going to say it happens here, but I will say that I hope it comes at home, against a team with a lousy offense, and not against one of the big three SEC opponents.
This game will probably be close all the way through, which is a testament to a couple of good defenses, a terrible offense, and another offense being engineered by a true freshman quarterback. I would expect a game very similar to the one played in Columbia two weeks ago, where the Bulldogs are in control throughout, but, for one reason or another, can’t seem to put their opponents away.
Georgia - 17, Colorado - 10
At least Ralphie won't disappoint.
#24 Penn State (+16.5) at #1 Ohio State
Both of these teams looked decent enough in their first and last games, beating the likes of Akron, Northern Illinois, Youngstown State, and Cincinnati. But it was each team’s second game that put them where they are in the rankings. The Buckeyes went on the road and dominated the defending national champs, while the Nittany Lions got hammered at Notre Dame.
Penn State will try to get their first road win of the season this weekend, as they try to win at the Horseshoe for the first time since 1978. The key to this game will probably be the Penn State secondary, the only such unit to make Brady Quinn look like a Heisman candidate so far this year.
Troy Smith’s mobility will not help matters. I see the Nittany Lion front seven having an even more difficult time getting pressure on the Ohio State QB than they did in South Bend. That does not bode well for a young secondary that made more than its fair share of mistakes in that game.
The good news for Penn State is that the beating they took at the hand of the Irish could have the Buckeyes looking ahead to a highly anticipated showdown with Iowa next week. If PSU avoids most of the egregious errors (getting beat deep, dropping potential interceptions), they should be able to avoid another embarrassment.
Ohio State - 27, Penn State - 13
"But wit Morelli comin' in..."
#20 Arizona State (+7.5) at #22 California
Since that opening debacle at Rocky Top, the Golden Bears have looked solid in wins over Minnesota and Portland State, while the Sun Devils have yet to receive a true test (although the Northern Arizona and Colorado games were in relative doubt into the second half).
Nate Longshore appears to have righted the ship (see what I did there?), at least when playing teams with suspect defenses, and ASU looks to be one of those teams. Granted, the Sun Devils have done a respectable job thus far, but that was against a I-AA opponent, a WAC opponent, and Colorado (see above).
They have yet to see an offense that features weapons such as Marshawn Lynch, DeSean Jackson, and Justin Forsett, so I refuse to believe in them until they finally stop somebody decent. Arizona State, meanwhile, features quite a bit of firepower of its own, with Rudy Carpenter, Rudy Burgess, Keegan Herring, and Zach Miller.
All signs point toward a good old-fashioned Pac-10 shootout, but as much as I’ve railed on ASU’s defense, I do feel like each team’s D is a little underrated. So the offenses will move the football pretty well, but don’t expect to see either team score in the 40s.
California - 31, Arizona State - 21
You want a real mutiny? Head to Tempe.
We all know how dismal the Buffaloes have been on offense up to this point: 10 points against Montana State and Colorado State, 3 points against an always stout Arizona State defense. So it will take no great leap of faith to predict that Dan Hawkins’ team won’t be able to muster much in the way of scoring versus a Bulldogs team giving up exactly 4 points a game.
But one thing people need to look at is, the Buffs have actually been a pretty good defensive team so far. They’ve surrendered point totals of 19, 14, and 21 (against an always very good ASU group…I’m being serious this time) in their three losses. The Bulldogs, on the other hand, scored only 18 points at South Carolina and led UAB just 10-0 at the half. Don’t call them world beaters just yet.
And let’s face it, chances are, Matthew Stafford is going to have a freshman meltdown at some point this season. I’m not going to say it happens here, but I will say that I hope it comes at home, against a team with a lousy offense, and not against one of the big three SEC opponents.
This game will probably be close all the way through, which is a testament to a couple of good defenses, a terrible offense, and another offense being engineered by a true freshman quarterback. I would expect a game very similar to the one played in Columbia two weeks ago, where the Bulldogs are in control throughout, but, for one reason or another, can’t seem to put their opponents away.
Georgia - 17, Colorado - 10
At least Ralphie won't disappoint.
#24 Penn State (+16.5) at #1 Ohio State
Both of these teams looked decent enough in their first and last games, beating the likes of Akron, Northern Illinois, Youngstown State, and Cincinnati. But it was each team’s second game that put them where they are in the rankings. The Buckeyes went on the road and dominated the defending national champs, while the Nittany Lions got hammered at Notre Dame.
Penn State will try to get their first road win of the season this weekend, as they try to win at the Horseshoe for the first time since 1978. The key to this game will probably be the Penn State secondary, the only such unit to make Brady Quinn look like a Heisman candidate so far this year.
Troy Smith’s mobility will not help matters. I see the Nittany Lion front seven having an even more difficult time getting pressure on the Ohio State QB than they did in South Bend. That does not bode well for a young secondary that made more than its fair share of mistakes in that game.
The good news for Penn State is that the beating they took at the hand of the Irish could have the Buckeyes looking ahead to a highly anticipated showdown with Iowa next week. If PSU avoids most of the egregious errors (getting beat deep, dropping potential interceptions), they should be able to avoid another embarrassment.
Ohio State - 27, Penn State - 13
"But wit Morelli comin' in..."
#20 Arizona State (+7.5) at #22 California
Since that opening debacle at Rocky Top, the Golden Bears have looked solid in wins over Minnesota and Portland State, while the Sun Devils have yet to receive a true test (although the Northern Arizona and Colorado games were in relative doubt into the second half).
Nate Longshore appears to have righted the ship (see what I did there?), at least when playing teams with suspect defenses, and ASU looks to be one of those teams. Granted, the Sun Devils have done a respectable job thus far, but that was against a I-AA opponent, a WAC opponent, and Colorado (see above).
They have yet to see an offense that features weapons such as Marshawn Lynch, DeSean Jackson, and Justin Forsett, so I refuse to believe in them until they finally stop somebody decent. Arizona State, meanwhile, features quite a bit of firepower of its own, with Rudy Carpenter, Rudy Burgess, Keegan Herring, and Zach Miller.
All signs point toward a good old-fashioned Pac-10 shootout, but as much as I’ve railed on ASU’s defense, I do feel like each team’s D is a little underrated. So the offenses will move the football pretty well, but don’t expect to see either team score in the 40s.
California - 31, Arizona State - 21
You want a real mutiny? Head to Tempe.
posted by lconneff | 8:05 PM
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