The Retrospective, Week 3
Week 3 Record (unofficial)
Straight Up: 7-3
Against the Spread: 8-2
I think I’m gonna start posting the spread I’m using during the week in the posts themselves. That’s a whole lot easier than trying to find the lines after the games have all ended. So my ATS record may be wrong, but I figured it out as best I could.
I lucked out in a major way this weekend. I mean, how often is your ATS record better than your record picking winners? Now, I’m not as versed in the gambling world as some people around here, but my guess is that it’s not very often.
On to the games:
Maryland (+ 16.5) @ West Virginia
My Prediction: WVU - 31, UM-14
Actual Result: WVU - 45, UM -24
Steve Slaton propelled himself into the Heisman race by rushing for 195 yards (167 in the first half) and two touchdowns in a game where Maryland never had a chance. About what I anticipated, but Slaton seems to get better every time I see him play.
Alabama- Birmingham (+17) @ Georgia
MP: UGA - 30, UAB - 10
AR: UGA - 34, UAB - 0
Not an easy win for Georgia by any means, but an easier than expected win over an always game UAB program. The defense continues to impress, even if they haven’t faced a decent offense yet. Also, a Greene-esque performance from a certain freshman quarterback was nice to see. An impressive showing, when the Bulldogs brought nothing resembling their A game.
Michigan (+7) @ Notre Dame
MP: ND - 28, UM - 24
AR: UM - 47, ND - 21
I didn’t think the Irish could get up for a big time opponent for a third week in a row, but I just didn’t know how right I was. Michigan is the first team with a decent offense and defense Notre Dame has faced, which doesn’t bode well for the Irish. But it’s a good thing they don’t really play anybody until USC.
Louisiana State (+3) @ Auburn
MP: AU - 17, LSU - 13
AR: AU - 7, LSU - 3
Either these defenses are a little better than I initially thought, or the offenses are a little worse. But as most people expected, the home field probably provided just enough of an advantage to give Auburn a huge edge in the West race.
Miami (+4.5) @ Louisville
MP: UL - 35, UM - 34
AR: UL - 31, UM - 7
I think some of my questions were answered here: “Is Miami’s offense terrible?” Yep.
“Did Florida State make their defense look much, much better than they really are?” Sure did. “Does Louisville have enough defense to beat a big-time program?” That seems to be the case. “Will they be able to run the ball effectively without Michael Bush?” Probably. It’s also worth noting that Kansas State will be the Cardinals’ toughest test before WVU. Expect a match up of unbeatens there.
Oklahoma (+4.5) @ Oregon
MP: OK - 20, OR - 17
AR: OR - 34, OK - 33
Well, Adrian Peterson did, indeed, have a field day. And, I think I just missed on my uniform combination pick. But I, like the Sooners, came up a little short. I just want to say that Bob Stoops can complain about those two calls not being overturned, but they may have deserved to lose that game based purely on the decision to run the ball with 10 seconds left (not mention that DB letting a receiver run right past him on the go-ahead touchdown).
Texas Tech (-1.5) @ Texas Christian
MP: TCU - 45, TTU - 42
AR: TCU - 12, TTU - 3
A little off-base on this one, but at least I predicted the winner. Not much else to say on this game, because I haven’t even seen a highlight from it. I guess it’s a tribute to how rare a day like Saturday is, where a top 25 non-conference game gets zero publicity.
Clemson (+4.5) @ Florida State
MP: FSU - 17, CU - 15
AR: CU - 27, FSU - 20
On a night where the Seminoles finally get something going on the ground, they throw for just 102 yards. And if not for words-can’t-describe-how-awful special teams on Clemson’s part, this game wouldn’t have even been close. I see this more as a testament to Florida State’s utter mediocrity than to Clemson’s having turned some kind of corner.
Nebraska (+ 17.5) @ Southern California
MP: USC - 38, NU - 17
AR: USC - 28, NU - 10
Like Patrick said, this game gave people pretty much what they expected to see. Maybe USC didn’t put up as many points as you would hope, but I think Dwayne Jarrett did enough (11 rec., 136 yards, 2 TDs) to shut Andre Jones up. John David Booty’s line was impressive as well (25/36, 257 yards, 3 TDs).
Florida (-4.5) @ Tennessee
MP: UF - 27, UT - 20
AR: UF - 21, UT - 20
The Gators had a little more trouble dispatching Tennessee than I originally thought. It took a touchdown with 6:30 left to give them the lead for good, while I anticipated a win that would be much easier than the score indicated. This game was very similar to the one these teams played a year ago. The Vols completely abandoned the run (2 yards), a mistake Randy Sanders made that I thought Cutcliffe would be sure not to emulate. And I’m not so sure about Ainge’s “resurgence” just yet. He’s better, but there’s still a a long way to go.
Straight Up: 7-3
Against the Spread: 8-2
I think I’m gonna start posting the spread I’m using during the week in the posts themselves. That’s a whole lot easier than trying to find the lines after the games have all ended. So my ATS record may be wrong, but I figured it out as best I could.
I lucked out in a major way this weekend. I mean, how often is your ATS record better than your record picking winners? Now, I’m not as versed in the gambling world as some people around here, but my guess is that it’s not very often.
On to the games:
Maryland (+ 16.5) @ West Virginia
My Prediction: WVU - 31, UM-14
Actual Result: WVU - 45, UM -24
Steve Slaton propelled himself into the Heisman race by rushing for 195 yards (167 in the first half) and two touchdowns in a game where Maryland never had a chance. About what I anticipated, but Slaton seems to get better every time I see him play.
Alabama- Birmingham (+17) @ Georgia
MP: UGA - 30, UAB - 10
AR: UGA - 34, UAB - 0
Not an easy win for Georgia by any means, but an easier than expected win over an always game UAB program. The defense continues to impress, even if they haven’t faced a decent offense yet. Also, a Greene-esque performance from a certain freshman quarterback was nice to see. An impressive showing, when the Bulldogs brought nothing resembling their A game.
Michigan (+7) @ Notre Dame
MP: ND - 28, UM - 24
AR: UM - 47, ND - 21
I didn’t think the Irish could get up for a big time opponent for a third week in a row, but I just didn’t know how right I was. Michigan is the first team with a decent offense and defense Notre Dame has faced, which doesn’t bode well for the Irish. But it’s a good thing they don’t really play anybody until USC.
Louisiana State (+3) @ Auburn
MP: AU - 17, LSU - 13
AR: AU - 7, LSU - 3
Either these defenses are a little better than I initially thought, or the offenses are a little worse. But as most people expected, the home field probably provided just enough of an advantage to give Auburn a huge edge in the West race.
Miami (+4.5) @ Louisville
MP: UL - 35, UM - 34
AR: UL - 31, UM - 7
I think some of my questions were answered here: “Is Miami’s offense terrible?” Yep.
“Did Florida State make their defense look much, much better than they really are?” Sure did. “Does Louisville have enough defense to beat a big-time program?” That seems to be the case. “Will they be able to run the ball effectively without Michael Bush?” Probably. It’s also worth noting that Kansas State will be the Cardinals’ toughest test before WVU. Expect a match up of unbeatens there.
Oklahoma (+4.5) @ Oregon
MP: OK - 20, OR - 17
AR: OR - 34, OK - 33
Well, Adrian Peterson did, indeed, have a field day. And, I think I just missed on my uniform combination pick. But I, like the Sooners, came up a little short. I just want to say that Bob Stoops can complain about those two calls not being overturned, but they may have deserved to lose that game based purely on the decision to run the ball with 10 seconds left (not mention that DB letting a receiver run right past him on the go-ahead touchdown).
Texas Tech (-1.5) @ Texas Christian
MP: TCU - 45, TTU - 42
AR: TCU - 12, TTU - 3
A little off-base on this one, but at least I predicted the winner. Not much else to say on this game, because I haven’t even seen a highlight from it. I guess it’s a tribute to how rare a day like Saturday is, where a top 25 non-conference game gets zero publicity.
Clemson (+4.5) @ Florida State
MP: FSU - 17, CU - 15
AR: CU - 27, FSU - 20
On a night where the Seminoles finally get something going on the ground, they throw for just 102 yards. And if not for words-can’t-describe-how-awful special teams on Clemson’s part, this game wouldn’t have even been close. I see this more as a testament to Florida State’s utter mediocrity than to Clemson’s having turned some kind of corner.
Nebraska (+ 17.5) @ Southern California
MP: USC - 38, NU - 17
AR: USC - 28, NU - 10
Like Patrick said, this game gave people pretty much what they expected to see. Maybe USC didn’t put up as many points as you would hope, but I think Dwayne Jarrett did enough (11 rec., 136 yards, 2 TDs) to shut Andre Jones up. John David Booty’s line was impressive as well (25/36, 257 yards, 3 TDs).
Florida (-4.5) @ Tennessee
MP: UF - 27, UT - 20
AR: UF - 21, UT - 20
The Gators had a little more trouble dispatching Tennessee than I originally thought. It took a touchdown with 6:30 left to give them the lead for good, while I anticipated a win that would be much easier than the score indicated. This game was very similar to the one these teams played a year ago. The Vols completely abandoned the run (2 yards), a mistake Randy Sanders made that I thought Cutcliffe would be sure not to emulate. And I’m not so sure about Ainge’s “resurgence” just yet. He’s better, but there’s still a a long way to go.
posted by lconneff | 9:15 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home