Sunday, October 08, 2006

The Retrospective, Week 6

Week 6 Record
Straight Up: 4-4
Against the Spread: 4-4

Not a good week for me, by any stretch of the imagination. But there’s no time to feel sorry for yourself. On to the recap, even though I only saw one game from start to finish on Saturday:

#13 Tennessee (-2) at #10 Georgia
My Prediction: UGA - 21, UT - 20
Actual Result: UT - 51, UGA - 33

More on this later.

#17 Florida State (-10.5) at North Carolina State
MP: FSU - 14, NCSU - 13
AR: NCSU - 24, FSU - 20

While it’s certainly no secret that Florida State has fallen off considerably over the last couple of seasons, it’s still somewhat surprising to read that the Seminoles have now run up a 4-6 record over their last 10 contests. And if the team’s performance Thursday night is any indication, fans can no longer focus every ounce of their ire on the greatest example of nepotism in college football today, offensive coordinator Jeff Bowden.

True, his offense managed only 20 points against a Wolfpack defense that surrendered 37 at Southern Miss a couple of weeks ago, but don’t forget that Mickey Andrews’ unit allowed Daniel Evans to throw for three touchdown passes on the evening. This is a situation (night game, facing a quarterback making his second career start) the Noles used to live for. Their inability to rattle the young QB may point to problems much larger than the guy calling plays.

#9 Louisiana State (-2.5) at #5 Florida
MP: UF - 24, LSU - 21
AR: UF - 23, LSU - 10

The Gators have emerged halfway through their four-game SEC schedule armageddon unscathed, which has them cemented as arguably the second best team in the nation. I say ‘arguably’ because, while it was an impressive victory, LSU did gradually hand the game over, starting at the end of the first half.

Five turnovers and three Tim Tebow touchdowns later, the apparently unbeatable (though somehow already once-beaten) Fighting Tigers had turned a close game into a rout. But don’t get me wrong. Florida is for real, whether or not they’re able to pull out what should be a ridiculously difficult task next week, because…

Arkansas (+15.5) at #2 Auburn
MP: AU - 31, UA - 14
AR: UA - 27, AU - 10

…Auburn will be seething come this Saturday night. Arkansas quarterback Mitch Mustain threw for just 87 yards on the Plains, but he only had to pass 10 times as Darren McFadden and Felix Jones combined for 249 yards and 2 touchdowns against an Auburn defense that had allowed 100 total yards on the ground just twice this season.

While Tommy Tuberville campaigned for BCS positioning and saw his team look a little more vulnerable week after week, Houston Nutt has watched his team improve markedly each week following a 50-14 thumping at the hands of USC in the season opener. These two teams on slightly differing paths met in the Jungle on Saturday, and the result wasn’t pretty for the Tigers. Auburn is going to have to get a little less one-dimensional on offense (and hope for a little luck) if they want to attain the goals they set out for themselves in the preseason.

#4 West Virginia (-25.5) at Mississippi State
MP: WVU - 34, MSU - 10
AR: WVU - 42, MSU - 14

West Virginia didn’t need to hold off a furious second half rally or use any special teams trickery to defeat their second Southeastern Conference opponent in as many tries in Starkville on Saturday. They did have to overcome some sloppy play, however, and couldn’t put Mississippi State away for good until Pat White reeled off a 46-yard touchdown run with 8 minutes to go.

They also got some help when Omarr Connor was knocked out in the third quarter and the beleaguered Michael Henig killed two drives with red zone interceptions. It wasn’t pretty, but the Mountaineers went into a hostile SEC environment (no matter how dismal the opponent), and came away with what might be their biggest win of the year.

#7 Texas (-5) vs. #14 Oklahoma
MP: UT - 27, OU - 21
AR: UT - 28, OU - 10

The shoe was on the other foot once again in Dallas, as Texas rode some solid quarterback play by Colt McCoy and watched Oklahoma turn the ball over five times in an eighteen-point victory. Those turnovers negated a 100 yard advantage the Sooners held in the passing game.

Paul Thompson threw for twice as many yards, but McCoy threw two touchdowns and no interceptions, while Thompson did just the opposite. The Longhorns flat out dominated the second half, though, so it’s not like Oklahoma just rolled over for them.

#11 Oregon (+5.5) at #16 California
MP: UO - 38, UCB - 35
AR: UCB - 45, UO - 24

So that’s what I get for picking against one of my national championship game selections. As soon as I start counting the Golden Bears out, they go ahead and hammer their fifth straight opponent. I don’t care who you’re playing, scoring 40 or more in five straight ball games (winning them all by at least three touchdowns) is very impressive.

Nate Longshore was solid, but it was that vaunted Cal running attack that really took it to the Ducks, even without an injured Marshawn Lynch for much of the ballgame. Justin Forsett picked up 163 yards and a touchdown as the feature back in coach Jeff Tedford’s offense. Even more impressive, the defense held Oregon to just 70 yards on the ground.

Navy (+3) at Air Force
MP: USNA - 27, USAA - 24
AR: USNA - 24, USAA - 17

The Midshipman dominated this game for three and a half quarters, but it looks like, lately, games in this series always seem to go down to the wire. Navy led 24-7 into the fourth quarter before allowing Air Force back in it by allowing a pair of scores and failing to recover an onside kick. But the defense held, and the Midshipman appear to be well on their way to securing a fourth consecutive Commander-in-Chief Trophy.

The offense rolled up over 300 yards rushing, and quarterback Brian Hampton only attempted 5 passes for 8 yards. This, my friends, is dominance. If they can beat Rutgers at home next week, Navy will have a legitimate shot at a 10 win regular season.

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