Weekly Predictions: Avoid the Letdown Edition

The theme in my predictions the last couple of weeks has sort of been a team’s ability (or lack thereof) to “get up” two weeks in a row. We saw Clemson follow the Georgia Tech win with a Virginia Tech loss. Florida lost to Auburn the week after a huge win over LSU. Notre Dame got dumped on by Michigan the week after dumping on Penn State.

And it doesn’t always apply to teams coming off a win. Just look at Georgia. They were sluggish against Vanderbilt the week after getting up for Tennessee. Same goes for the Florida and Kentucky losses. Now, this isn’t a foolproof plan for picking games, as last week’s Oklahoma-Texas A&M contest, for instance, may demonstrate. It’s simply a theory commonly held among college football fans, usually based on a relatively small sample size of games.

The reason I lead with this is because a number of the games we’re picking this week involve teams coming off of big, important, emotional games this past weekend, and whether they won or lost those games, it’s always so difficult (for whatever reason) for a team to give two totally inspired performances in a row.

As usual, we begin on Thursday night:

#3 Louisville (-6) at #15 Rutgers

So the theory holds that Louisville will be going down in this game. Add that to the fact that the Scarlet Knights are coming off a bye week, and this looks like a slam dunk. But as our second-favorite senile ESPN personality (Beano not included) would say, not so fast my friend. The letdown factor will have an effect, but I feel like the Cardinals have the better quarterback, more athletes on both sides of the ball, and a coaching edge, slight as it may be. That’s enough to keep them in the national title hunt, but just barely.
Louisville - 31, Rutgers - 24



Vanderbilt (+2.5) at Kentucky

A couple of surprising SEC East clubs look to sneak into bowl eligibility, but facing a must-win situation against the other if they expect to pick up a rare postseason berth. Kentucky needs only to win this game and beat Louisiana-Monroe to reach that six-win plateau, while the Commodores face a much taller task. If they get past Kentucky, they must beat Tennessee for the second consecutive time in order to avoid a second consecutive five-win season. Chris Nickson’s legs are the difference against one of the worst defenses in the nation, and neither team goes bowling.
Vanderbilt - 23, Kentucky - 20

Alabama (+17) at #12 Louisiana State

Quite a few things point to the upset in this game as well. The Tigers left it all on the field of Neyland Stadium last Saturday in a come from behind win over Tennessee, while Tide are trying to prove that last week’s stunning loss to Mississippi State was little more than a fluke. And you know what Bill Curry always says, “The Tide don’t lose in Baton Rouge.” All of these things will keep the game close, but Alabama just doesn’t have the firepower to hang with JaMarcus Russell and the LSU offense.
LSU - 21, Alabama - 10

#13 Tennessee (+5.5) at #11 Arkansas

Now here’s a case where both teams are coming off of big, emotional games last week, and now they have to turn right back around and play in Saturday’s biggest game. Such is the nature of Southeastern Conference football. After letting LSU run all over them last week, the Tennessee defense really have their work cut out for them against Darren McFadden. A rowdy home crowd will get the Razorbacks up for this contest, while the Volunteers’ lack of a run game catches up with them for the second week in a row.
Arkansas - 27, Tennessee - 21



South Carolina (+13) at #6 Florida

Steve Spurrier will use every motivational technique he has and will run every trick play he has up his sleeve, but it still won’t be enough for his overmatched Gamecocks to overcome the Gators’ nasty defensive football team. If South Carolina couldn’t get it done against ranked opponents under the lights at home the past two weeks, how can you expect them to pull off the big upset in the face of one of the greatest home field advantages in all of college football? Florida doesn’t blow anybody out, though, so at least the Gamecocks get the cover.
Florida - 20, South Carolina - 16

#18 Wake Forest (+7) at Florida State

Vegas must be a fan of the letdown factor as well, as they inexplicably make 8-1 Wake Forest a touchdown underdog at 5-4 Florida State. I realize they’re at home and that their athletes are vastly superior, but Florida State by seven over anybody seems a little excessive to me. That having been said, the Deacons are coming off of the biggest win in school history, so a hangover is probably inevitable. I want Wake Forest to win, I really do. But Xavier Lee’s improvement, along with the home field advantage, are a little too much for them to overcome.
Florida State - 17, Wake Forest - 14



#21 Oregon (+5.5) at #7 Southern California

While neither one of these teams has quite lived up to the lofty expectations people were setting for them after the first couple of weeks, they’re still at the top of what has been a very balanced Pac-10 this year, so that’s got to count for something. Oregon comes off a blowout of an average Washington team, while the Trojans are fresh off letting out some of their frustrations on the certifiably terrible Stanford Cardinal. USC is highly motivated after letting one slip away against Oregon State, and they pull away in the second half at home.
USC - 34, Oregon - 20

3-AAAA Championship: #3 Statesboro at Ware County

The Blue Devils travel to Waycross looking to lock up their third consecutive perfect regular season against Fred Gibson’s alma mater, and there’s no reason to believe they won’t be able to do so. Aside from the Gators’ loss to Effingham, the team’s resumes are pretty similar, but in my mind, you’ve got to go with what works, and that’s Statesboro winning the big game yet again.
Statesboro - 14, Ware County - 6

3-AAA (A) Championship: Liberty County at South Effingham

This battle of sub region opponents who could’ve hung a hundred on BC if they wanted to is for a first round home playoff game, and both teams are rolling. Liberty has thrown two straight shutouts, while the Mustangs haven’t allowed a point in two of their last four games. As good as the defenses may be, I like the Panthers’ offense a whole lot more, so I expect them to take the region on the road Friday night.
Liberty County - 21, South Effingham - 10

6-AAAA Championship: #7 Marist at #9 St. Pius X

After feeling like they were in control of the region for much of the year, St. Pius find themselves possibly battling for a top-two seed this week against rival Marist. The War Eagles, after that heartbreaking loss to Tucker in Week 2, have stuck with it and now can come back to win the region in this contest. I like Marist’s experience in this position to provide the difference in a very tight ballgame.
Marist - 24, St. Pius - 21

Georgia (+13) at #5 Auburn

You know, it’s really hard to come up with something to write about Georgia’s chances against some of their biggest rivals right now. I mean, history says that the Bulldogs always have a chance on the Plains, but can a team that’s regressing as quickly as this one seems to be really do the unthinkable on Saturday? Auburn has quietly managed to win every week since the Arkansas loss, and are fresh off pitching a shutout last week. But because the Tigers have yet to look dominant in conference play, I’ve got to think Georgia will be able to keep it interesting. Anything beyond that, though, I’m not sure about.
Auburn - 28, Georgia - 20