Wednesday, September 27, 2006

Beat the Anglin Book, Week 5

Alabama (+13) at #5 Florida

A revenge game if there ever was one, the mighty Gators welcome to the Swamp an Alabama team that absolutely worked them in Tuscaloosa this time last year, 31-3. The Tide might be a little better on offense than they were last year, because they seem to have some semblance of a passing game. But in order to hang with Florida, they’re going to need Kenneth Darby and the rushing attack to finally hit their stride.

The Gators, meanwhile, have rushed the football better than expected, with a rebuilt offensive line that has given Chris Leak enough time to put up some decent numbers. But things won’t be so easy against a Tide defense that’s almost as good as it was in 2005. Florida has everything going for them: better coaching, the home field, even the revenge factor, but Alabama’s defense does enough to keep them in it.

Florida - 21, Alabama - 13


Tim Tebow has come up short in Alabama before.

#1 Ohio State (-7) at #13 Iowa

The national game of the week features a match up for top-ranked Ohio State that many people before the season, myself included, saw as a major stumbling block on their drive for a national title. With remaining road dates scheduled at Michigan State, Illinois, and Northwestern, this is probably the last chance anyone has of taking down the Buckeyes in a hostile environment.

The Iowa offense hasn’t done anything spectacular in their first four games, which is not a good sign as they face a stout and improving OSU defense on the other side of the line. But they should still have a better showing against the Buckeyes than Penn State did, and the outcome of that game was still in doubt late in the fourth quarter. Drew Tate won’t give it away like Anthony Morelli did last week, but Troy Smith will do just enough for his team to escape with the #1 ranking.

Ohio State - 24, Iowa - 20


You can rest assured Kirk Ferentz won't need run for the toilet in the first half.

#10 Georgia (-17) at Mississippi

People seem to be making a big deal about the late kickoff time, and how it could affect Georgia. But the way I see it, the 9:00 start won’t have much of an impact on what happens against Ole Miss, but it could cause problems as far as the preparation for Tennessee goes. I’m getting ahead of myself.

Motivation won’t be a problem, as it was against Colorado, in a raucous SEC environment like the team will see in Oxford. The bigger problem could be Ole Miss quarterback Brent Schaeffer, a mobile guy who has had some trouble picking up the offense. Sound familiar? Well, go back and take a look at Colorado QB Bernard Jackson’s performance between the hedges last Saturday.

The Rebels will try to get him outside the pocket on bootlegs and sprint outs, hoping to use the Bulldog defense’s aggressiveness against them. Though defensive coordinator Willie Martinez will likely have a solid scheme in place, Schaeffer’s athleticism will be difficult to simulate in practice. So don’t be surprised if Ole Miss is able to move the ball well on the first few drives before Georgia begins to adjust to the speed of the game.

When Georgia has the ball, they should be able to do whatever they want. The Rebels aren’t particularly strong against the run or the pass, and the Bulldogs certainly have the talent to do both very well. The question lies in Georgia’s execution. If the receivers can hold on to the football and the O-line does what it’s supposed to do, it doesn’t matter who’s lining up under center.

Georgia - 27, Ole Miss - 13


Hopefully, Shackleford never has to jump this high again.

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